MARA (MARA) Stock Forecast 2026–2030: Long-Term Scenarios

MARA Holdings (NASDAQ: MARA) has experienced a steep decline over the past two years, with its share price sliding from $18.01 in October 2024 to $7.53 in October 2026. This article breaks down where the business stands today and outlines potential paths for the stock through 2030.

Long-range stock forecasts are not guarantees or fixed predictions. Instead, they are structured scenarios designed to help you see what operating performance, sales growth, and valuation multiples are already baked into the current market price.

Share price	$7.53 (Oct 15, 2026)
Market value	about $2.9 billion
52-week range	$6.66 – $23.16
Revenue, last 12 months	about $804.2 million
Revenue growth, last fiscal year	38%
Net income, last 12 months	a loss of about $3.5 billion
Price-to-sales	about 3.6×
Price-to-earnings	n/a (not profitable)
Analyst 12-month target	average $15.25 (range $10 – $27); 4 buy, 3 hold, 2 sell

Market data from Nasdaq as of October 17, 2026. Check current figures before making any decision.

The table above captures MARA’s financial profile as of mid-October 2026. While sales climbed past $900 million in fiscal 2025, sizable net losses and missed quarterly estimates have weighed heavily on investor sentiment, pushing the stock close to its 52-week low.

What does MARA do?

MARA Holdings operates at the intersection of energy systems and digital infrastructure. The company deploys digital energy technologies designed to transform surplus power into computing output, effectively converting excess electrical capacity into digital assets like Bitcoin.

By running flexible, high-demand compute operations, MARA works to help balance local electrical grids and support the buildout of energy assets. In addition to cryptocurrency mining, the company develops hardware and software tools aimed at cutting the power requirements of high-performance computing, spanning artificial intelligence workloads and edge computing facilities.

Revenues come primarily from the digital capital generated through its compute sites. When computing operations run, the generated assets are either held on the corporate balance sheet or converted to fund business operations, site expansions, and power agreements.

Where the business stands today

MARA’s top line expanded rapidly in recent years, but recent quarters point to deceleration. Annual revenue grew from $387.5 million in fiscal 2023 to $656.4 million in 2024, and reached $907.1 million in fiscal 2025, which marked a 38.2% annual growth rate.

Over the last four reported quarters, total revenue came in at $804.2 million, showing a downward sequential drift. Quarterly sales peaked at $252.41 million for the period ending September 30, 2025, before tapering to $202.31 million in December 2025, $174.61 million in March 2026, and $174.88 million in June 2026. Investors evaluating digital compute infrastructure often compare these trends to peers covered in our RIOT Stock Forecast or track our earlier projections in the MARA Price Prediction.

Bottom-line performance has been heavily negative. MARA generated $541.3 million in net income in fiscal 2024, but swung to a net loss of $1.3 billion in fiscal 2025. Over the four quarters ending June 30, 2026, cumulative net losses widened to $3.5 billion.

Earnings reports over the past year have consistently lagged Wall Street expectations:

• June 2026 quarter: Reported EPS was -$0.70 versus a -$0.56 consensus estimate (-25.0% surprise).
• March 2026 quarter: Reported EPS was -$0.61 versus a -$0.46 consensus estimate (-32.6% surprise).
• December 2025 quarter: Reported EPS was -$0.46 versus a -$0.23 consensus estimate (-100.0% surprise).
• September 2025 quarter: Reported EPS was -$0.32 versus a -$0.26 consensus estimate (-23.1% surprise).

Consensus estimates project ongoing losses ahead. Analysts expect an EPS of -$1.65 for the fiscal year ending December 2026, -$1.00 for fiscal 2027, and -$1.41 for fiscal 2028.

What is the 12-month MARA stock forecast?

Nasdaq analyst consensus sets a 12-month average price target of $15.25 for MARA, representing an implied gain of roughly 102.5% from the current price of $7.53. The target range remains wide, spanning from a low of $10.00 to a high of $27.00, based on 4 buy, 3 hold, and 2 sell recommendations.

For MARA to approach the consensus target of $15.25 over the next year, several operational milestones would have to align:

• Compute revenues would need to stabilize after declining for three consecutive quarters.
• The company would need to narrow its quarterly operating losses and halt negative earnings surprises.
• Broader digital asset prices and high-performance computing power demand would need to remain strong enough to improve operational margins.

If execution stumbles or compute margins shrink further, the low end of the analyst range ($10.00) indicates that Wall Street still sees potential for re-rating, though meeting those targets requires reversing the trend of the past four earnings releases.

MARA stock forecast for 2030: three long-term scenarios

To project where MARA might trade by 2030, we evaluate three revenue growth trajectories paired with normalized valuation multiples. The baseline uses the $804.2 million in revenue generated over the last four reported quarters. Today’s price-to-sales (P/S) ratio sits at 3.6.

In these models, fast growth rates gradually taper as the revenue base expands. Multiple expansion is capped to reflect mature valuation trends, while the share count expands to factor in ongoing equity dilution.

Scenario	Revenue growth per year	2030 revenue	Price-to-sales	Shares	Implied share price
Bear	11% slowing to 5%	$1.1 billion	2.2×	435 million	about $5.50 (-27%)
Base	23% slowing to 15%	$1.6 billion	3.3×	410 million	about $12.77 (+70%)
Bull	34% slowing to 25%	$2.3 billion	4.0×	394 million	about $22.93 (+205%)

To put these paths into context, let’s examine the break-even math. At the base-case multiple of 3.3 times sales and a share count of 410 million, MARA needs about $948.4 million of annual revenue in 2030 just to support today’s $7.53 price. Anything below that pace implies that today’s valuation is overly optimistic. Long-term tech investors weigh similar operational milestones when reading our Robinhood Markets (HOOD) Stock Forecast.

The bear case

In this scenario, compute economics remain tough and operational expansion slows significantly. Revenue growth moderates from 11% down to 5% annually, averaging about 8% per year to hit $1.1 billion by 2030. Ongoing cash burn pushes the share count up to 435 million through secondary offerings. At a compressed multiple of 2.2 times sales, the stock trades near $5.50, a 27% drop from current levels.

The base case

Here, MARA successfully stabilizes its core compute operations and builds steady revenue across alternative high-performance computing workloads. Sales grow at 23% initially, tapering to 15% (averaging 19% annually) to reach $1.6 billion in 2030. Modest share dilution brings the count to 410 million. With a P/S multiple of 3.3, the implied price reaches $12.77, up 70% from today.

The bull case

The bull case assumes that MARA’s digital energy infrastructure and power-management tech see aggressive adoption, lifting compute utilization. Revenue increases at 34% before settling at 25% yearly (about 30% on average), pushing 2030 revenue to $2.3 billion. Stronger internal cash generation limits dilution to 394 million shares. Valued at 4.0 times sales, the stock reaches $22.93, a 205% gain.

The primary takeaway from this modeling is that MARA’s current price requires steady, double-digit annual sales growth through 2030 to generate meaningful returns. If revenue stalls near current levels, valuation multiple contraction and equity dilution create persistent downside.

Risks to weigh

Before making any investment decision on MARA, consider these core operational risks:

• Persistent heavy losses: MARA lost $3.5 billion over the last four reported quarters, and analyst consensus points to negative annual EPS through at least 2028.
• Dilution risk: As capital spending needs continue amid negative earnings, the company may rely on issuing additional shares, reducing existing shareholders’ equity slice.
• Top-line deceleration: Quarterly revenue fell from $252.41 million in late 2025 to under $175 million in both early 2026 quarters.
• Quarterly execution track record: MARA missed consensus earnings forecasts in each of the past four quarters by margins ranging from 23% to 100%.
• Commodity and compute volatility: Revenue depends directly on power pricing, grid balancing demands, and digital asset cycles, all of which can swing unpredictably.

What to watch next

The clearest indicator of MARA’s operational health will be its upcoming quarterly earnings report. Watch whether revenue can break its recent flat pattern of roughly $175 million per quarter and whether per-share losses begin to narrow toward the -$1.65 consensus estimate for full-year 2026.

Keep an eye on the company’s share count disclosures each quarter to gauge the pace of dilution. Finally, monitor whether management can sign contracts for high-performance computing or AI infrastructure workloads, which would help diversify revenue away from pure cryptocurrency price reliance.

FAQ

Market data and financials: Nasdaq. Scenario math: investing20.

This article is for information only and is not investment advice. Do your own research before investing.